Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3605 · MIA → JAX
departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.