Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3788
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3788 · SDF → DFW
departs 11:09 AM ET · arrives 12:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 66%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
11am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.