Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3788
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3788 · SDF → DFW
departs 11:09 AM ET · arrives 12:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3 53%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
11am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.