Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3863 · ACK → CLT
departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 4:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ACK that day
↓
ACK is quiet at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.