Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3938
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3938 · MLI → DFW
departs 11:09 AM CT · arrives 1:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 84%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
MLI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.