Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4042
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4042 · MIA → AVL
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.