Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4042
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4042 · MIA → AVL
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.