Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4079
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4079 · DFW → LIT
departs 9:11 PM CT · arrives 10:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
LIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.