Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4085 · CMH → MIA
departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 9:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from CMH are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.