Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4100
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4100 · CRP → DFW
departs 9:01 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
CRP usually runs smoothly
↓
9am departures from CRP are usually not late
Weather at each end
CRP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.67 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.