Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4100
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4100 · CRP → DFW
departs 9:01 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
CRP usually runs smoothly
↓
9am departures from CRP are usually not late
Weather at each end
CRP (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.