Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4138 · TVC → DCA
departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.