Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4138 · TVC → DCA
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
↓
TVC is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.