Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4300
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4300 · MIA → VPS
departs 11:10 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain forecast at VPS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
11pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
VPS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.