OH 5073 · CLT → SBN

took off 9:50 PM ET · landed 11:08 PM ET (scheduled 9:20 PM ET → 11:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at CLT that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.22 in

SBN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5073 · CLT → SBN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBN?