OH 5078 · DCA → TLH

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 10:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.51 in

TLH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5078 · DCA → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?