OH 5261 · DCA → HSV

took off 6:01 PM ET · landed 6:34 PM CT (scheduled 5:35 PM ET → 6:39 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HSV?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HSV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

HSV (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5261 · DCA → HSV

Odds over time

How late did it get to HSV?