Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5269 · CLT → MEM

departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 6:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.79 in

MEM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5269 · CLT → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?