Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

OH 5474 · DCA → PHL

departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 2:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.41 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5474 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?