Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5474 · DCA → PHL

departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 2:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5474 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?