Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 4251 · CIU → MSP
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 10%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CIU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.