Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4806 · DEN → FAT
departs 3:57 PM MT · arrives 5:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.