Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 4806 · DEN → FAT
departs 3:57 PM MT · arrives 5:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.