Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4912 · DFW → ASE
departs 10:50 AM CT · arrives 12:21 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ASE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ASE?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
ASE (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.