Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1008 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?