Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2447 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2447 · AUS → DEN

departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 4:22 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2447 · AUS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?