Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1417 · DAL → TPA
departs 7:35 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 27%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
7pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.