Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1417 · DAL → TPA
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 11:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Sat 10/3 44%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,067 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.