Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1419 · DAL → TUL
departs 8:50 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 75%
Fri 10/2 51%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.