Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1656 · MCO → SJU
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM AT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.