Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2145 · ISP → BWI
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from ISP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.