Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2145 · ISP → BWI
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from ISP are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.