Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4478 · DAL → LGA
departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.