Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4478 · DAL → LGA
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.