Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4478 · DAL → LGA
departs 12:25 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.