Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 581 · BNA → MIA
departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 12:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.