Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 581 · BNA → MIA
departs 11:15 AM CT · arrives 2:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.