Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3501 · GRR → EWR
departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.