YX 3510 · MKE → EWR

took off 6:44 PM CT · landed 9:27 PM ET (scheduled 6:37 PM CT → 10:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3510 · MKE → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?