Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3510 · MKE → EWR
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 29%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.