Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3510 · MKE → EWR
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 29%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.