Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3543 · BOS → IAD
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.