Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3543 · BOS → IAD
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.