Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3543 · BOS → IAD
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.