Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3680 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 38%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.