Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3680 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.