Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3680 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BGR
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.