Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3706 · ILM → EWR
departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
ILM is prone to delays
↓
7am departures from ILM are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.49 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.