Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3706 · ILM → EWR
departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
7am departures from ILM are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.87 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.