Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3706 · ILM → EWR
departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↓
7am departures from ILM are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.19 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.